Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). A lock (LockA locked padlock) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. MacDonald, G.M. (Going forward, to avoid having to say northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico over and over, Ill refer to this area as the monsoon region.). What happened that make TS Nora so underwhelming? A couple of field campaigns, including the Arizona-based South-West Monsoon Project (SWAMP, 1993) and the international North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME, 2004), provided a lot of observational data and resulted in a better understanding of the mechanics of the monsoon. Regarding changes that have already occurred, the report finds modest evidence that the monsoon rainfall has intensified since the 1970s, and this has been partly attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. The oceans between Gondwana and North America began to close. Right:Reconstruction of living animals. Left photoandright photofrom NPS, courtesy David Bustos (public domain). Lake Mead, the lake created by the Hoover Dam, at two points in time about 21 years apart. Another factor besides latitude and elevation that influences temperature in the Southwest is its arid climate. Left (1):Leaves of a seedling. Onion Creek salt diapir, a salt dome exposed at the surface at Fisher Towers, Utah. Scale bar = 1 centimeter (about 0.4 inches). Average annual preciptiation for the southwestern U.S. The pyrocumulonimbus cloud shown at the arrow was created by heat from the fire. I listened to the Southwest Climate Podcast from CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest, to learn more about what affects the monsoon and its rainfall, and how Monsoon 2021 is shaping up, and reached out to the podcast co-hosts, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins, for help with this post. Ornithopod-type tracks, Powell Fossil Track Block Tracksite, Jurassic Navajo Sandstone, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Arizona and Utah. Global temperatures fell further in the late Miocene thanks to the formation of the Himalayas. Green areas mean drought is likely to end. August 2021 National Climate Report | National Centers for Because high mountains to the west and north act as a barrier to cold Arctic air masses, most areas of Utah rarely experience temperatures below freezing or prolonged periods of extreme cold. The impacts of the monsoon go beyond just rainfall amounts. Large portions of the Southwest have experienced drought conditions since weekly Drought Monitor records began in 2000. By the late Carboniferous, North America had collided with Gondwana, leading to the formation of Pangaeaa supercontinent composed of nearly all the landmass on Earth. Calf Canyon-Hermit Creek Fire near Holman, New Mexico, on May 8, 2022. As Pangaea reached its greatest size during the early Triassic, the monsoons intensity increased, and the vast dune deserts of the late Permian were replaced by rivers and floodplains. Las Cruces is located in the Basin and Range region of New Mexico. SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov. Extreme high temperatures. Well those extra storms probably just go somewhere else because of the change in wind pattern that the El Nino brings, eh? The event devastated the Southwest, shifting a densely forested landscape to one primarily covered with fast-growing herbs and ferns. Approximately 3.5 million years ago, glacial ice began to form over the Arctic Ocean and on the northern parts of North America and Eurasia. All the weather intel you need for summer 2021 is here -- including what's in store for wildfire season . The reasons for this are complex and involve a combination factors. During the winter, moisture travels from the west, as storms from the Pacific Ocean move east. Maps and data. Positive values represent wetter-than-average conditions, while negative values represent drier-than-average conditions. Precipitation accumulation over the past 12 months, shown as a percent of the average mid-August through mid-August total. This mortality is attributed to higher temperatures, drought, and the eruption of bark beetles that are able to survive through warmer winter weather. Thanks for visiting the North American Monsoon region with me! Also found are a number of tree species with a disjunct distribution. Accessed March 2021. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx. Alaska weather and daylight varies wildly by region and season, from short-sleeves in summer to down jackets in winter; from 7 rainy days in May in Southcentral to 17 rainy days in the Inside Passage. Wind moves the air, promoting mixing. Acad. The Weather and Climate in France: What You Should Know - TripSavvy The inner canyon temperatures are extreme and hot, with a lower elevation of about 2400 feet (732 meters). Its remnant exists today as the Great Salt Lake. 2. Check out Toms recent post on the drought in Arizona to understand more about how drought works in this region. The desert experiences large temperature extremes, especially between day and night; daily temperature may change as much as 15C (60F) during the driest parts of the year. Brown indicates where precipitation has been less than average; green is greater than average. Left photoandright photoby NPS/Michael Quinn (Grand Canyon National Park via flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, images cropped and resized). Lake Powell, the lake created by Glen Canyon Dam, at two points in time about four years apart. Shelly sandstones in Utah represent vast tidal flats. Low annual precipitation, clear skies, and year-round warm climate over much of the Southwest are due in large part to a quasi-permanent subtropical high-pressure ridge over the region. Yet this landscape actually supports a vast array of plants and animals, along with millions of people who call the Southwest home. Photo by James Bo Insogna. Soil moisture, ground water, and streamflow are part of Drought Monitor calculations (Figure 2), and they are all sensitive to human activities. The better known of these wet seasons is the summer monsoon, which lasts from about mid-June to early September. The main features that influence the areas climate are latitude, regional topography, and a low atmospheric moisture content that leads to quick evaporation. Despite the monsoon rainfall this year, much of the region is still in a precipitation deficit. This chapter builds on assessments of climate change in the Southwest region from the three previous U.S. National Climate Assessments. Pleistocene Lake Bonneville. Andrews Glacier in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, at two points in time. Go to the full list of resources about the climate of the southwestern U.S. Go to the full list of general resources about climate. Branches and leaves of an ancient conifer (Walchia dawsonii), Permian Hermit Shale, Arizona. By comparison, the average high and low temperatures for the entire United States are 17C (63F) and 5C (41F), respectively. Climate Impacts in the Southwest | Climate Change Impacts | US EPA Shallow seaways spread over many of the continents, including South America, Africa, Eurasia, and North America. There was likely little or no glacial ice anywhere on Earth, and temperatures were highest in lower latitudes. As in Arizona, the desert experiences a large range of temperature on a daily basis. The state's highest temperatures occur in the northeastern plains, where they can exceed 46C (115F). While thats often the situation for the Indian monsoon, the monsoon in North America behaves a bit differently. For extended periods from 2002 to 2005 and from 2012 to2020, nearly the entire region was abnormally dry or even drier (see Figure 2). In the Southwest, climate change may impact a variety of resources, including water availability in the form of snowpack and spring streamflow, the distribution and composition of plant communities, and fire regimes. Also, the occasional eastern Pacific tropical storm can increase monsoon moisture and rainfall. JavaScript appears to be disabled on this computer. Fossil plants, Late Cretaceous Fruitland Formation, San Juan Basin, New Mexico. National Drought Mitigation Center. Photo by Eltiempo10 (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image resized). Earth 300 million years ago, during the end of the Carboniferous Period (Pennsylvanian). Declining water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat, and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns. Summer- The summer in the Southwest region is hot and desert-like. The onset of stream flows from melting snow in Colorado has shifted two weeks earlier due to warming spring temperatures. 2021. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Convective mixing forces the moisture in warm air to condense as it comes into contact with cool air, forming vapor (clouds) and precipitation (for example, rain or hail). Left:Trilobites identified asDolichometoppus productusandAlokistocare althea. Today, most of the Southwest experiences about 17 fewer freezing days than it did over the last century. Pangaea began to break up during the Jurassic, rifting apart into continents that would drift toward their modern-day positions. As the continents moved closer to their modern positions, the Southwest experienced a hot and humid tropical climate. After the end-Cretaceous bolide impact, the climate may have cooled briefly, but it soon rebounded to a warmer state. Funnel clouds (developing tornadoes) over El Paso County, Colorado, March 29, 2019. Roadcut exposing lake sediments of the Eocene Green River Formation, Duchesne County, Utah. At any rate I'd just like to point out a potential clue to your springtime predictability barrier problem. These warmer temperatures and increased precipitation have helped bring on longer growing seasons. Eventually, a sheet of sea ice formed over the Arctic, and ice sheets spread over northern Asia, Europe, and North America, signaling the start of the most recent ice age. The satellite loop in this post shows Gulf of Mexico moisture moving west into the monsoon region. Water, climate change, and sustainability in the Southwest. Also, these favourable weather conditions usually occur more. Data for Figures 1 and 3 were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations National Centers for Environmental Information, which maintains a large collection of climate data online at: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag. Earth 150 million years ago, near the end of the Jurassic Period. Long-Range Weather Forecast for Desert Southwest - Almanac.com In 2000-2003, the combination of severe drought and unusually high temperatures led to a significant die-off of pion pines in the Four Corners region of the Southwest. Shiprock, a volcanic monadnock in San Juan County, New Mexico, rises roughly 483 meters (1583 feet) above the desert plain. The Southwest is typically dry, hot, and humid. Photoandreconstructionby National Park Service/NPS (public domain). Wetter-than-average monsoons (green dots) are slightly more common during La Nia years, while drier-than-average monsoons (brown dots) are slightly more common during El Nio years. Thanks to the region's high temperatures and low precipitation levels from summer 2020 through summer 2021, the current drought has exceeded the severity of a late-1500s megadrought that previously had been identified by the same authors as the driest in 1,200 years. Bear Lake and Glacier Gorge, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, 2011. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid-January. Map of the Gulf of Mexico region before the closure of the Isthmus of Panama. Typically, a storm blows itself out once the warm air has moved up and the cool air has moved down. Agriculture accounts for more than half of the Southwests water use, so any major reduction in the availability of water resources will create a serious strain on ecosystems and populations. The location of the Southwest and the topographical extremes across this area strongly influence its weather. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:13. The geography and climate of the southwestern U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains (in other words, in the Great Plains region in Colorado and New Mexico) are nearly ideal for their formation of thunderstorms and tornados, especially in the summer. However, while the effect of warming on the storms is uncertain, temperatures have been increasing. In addition, temperature increases and recent drought have resulted in earlier spring snowmelt and decreased snow cover on the lower slopes of high mountains, bringing about more rapid runoff and increased flooding. . Soils associated with these floodplains testify to the extreme seasonality of rainfall during that time. I did a quick comparison of the average JulyAugust rainfall in the monsoon region with the Nio-3.4 index, using 70 years of records. One recent study explored the relationship between the monsoon and wildfires in the Southwest and northern Mexico, finding that monsoon rains were important for ending wildfires. The March-April-May (MAM) 2023 temperature outlook favors below-normal. Bark beetles, which normally die in cold weather, have been able to survive through the winter and reproduce, increasing tree mortality. To provide more detailed information, each state has been divided into climate divisions, which are zones that share similar climate features. Figure by Ingrid Zabel for PRI's [emailprotected] project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license). Climate Impacts in the Southwest | Climate Change Impacts | US EPA AccuWeather's 2021 US Summer Forecast | AccuWeather Southwestern states are stepping up their use and production of renewable energy. Modified from a map by Adam Peterson (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license). During this time, the only exposed areas were islands in western Colorado and parts of New Mexico. The Southwest is also definable, to an extent, by environmental conditions - primarily aridity. When you add in the sparse rain-gauge observations available in the U.S. Southwest and Mexico, it becomes even more difficult to make confident statements about the effects of the monsoon and how it can be predicted. Layers of gypsum, an evaporate, from the Permian Castile Formation, Eddy County, New Mexico. In New Mexico, for example, the average difference between the daily high and low temperatures ranges from 14 to 19C (25 to 35F). This feature provides a closer look at trends in temperature and drought in the southwestern United States. This may be due to the growth of solar energy, and voluntary commitments to reduce emissions made by large utility companies in the state. Glaciation in the Southern Hemisphere occurred during the late Devonian, while the supercontinent Gondwana was located over the South Pole, and intensified during the early Carboniferous. The map in Figure 1 shows how average annual temperatures in the Southwest from 2000 to 2020differed from the average over the entire period since widespread temperature records became available (18952020). Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397). Credits: Most of the text on this page comes from "Climate of the Southwestern US" by Ingrid H. H. Zabel, Judith T. Parrish, and Andrielle N. Swaby, chapter 8 in The Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the Southwestern US, edited by Andrielle N. Swaby, Mark D. Lucas, and Robert M. Ross (published in 2016 by the Paleontological Research Institution; currently out of print). Zack also mentioned our good friend El Nio! 830 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023. Asia, Climate of Southwest | SpringerLink Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation(Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, image resized). August 2022 U.S. Climate Outlook: a wet Southwest - NOAA Climate.gov The Southwest relies on the slow melt of mountain snowpack throughout the spring and summer, when water demands are highest. The intensification recorded since about the 1970s has been partly driven by greenhouse gas emissions (medium confidence). In 8.4, What are the projected water cycle changes?, the summary statement is there is low agreement on a projected decrease of NAmerM precipitation, however there is high confidence in delayed onsets and demises of the summer monsoon.. Fossil mammals adapted to colder temperatures are found in the Pleistocene of Colorado. Although much of the Southwest falls within the category of an arid zone, using a single label to describe the Southwest's climate would belie its diversity. Source:Figure 1 from Erdei et al. The Palmer Index is calculated from precipitation and temperature measurements at weather stations, and has been used widely for many years. Photo by James St. John (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Left:Jaw with teeth. Photo by Dr. David Goodrich, NOAA (NOAA Photo Library ID wea04192, NOAA's National Weather Service, via flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Parts of the Southwest are also experiencing long-term reductions in mountain snowpack (see the Snowpack indicator), which accounts for a large portion of the regions water supply. Moving westward, Colorado's foothills and mountainous areas experience an overall cooler climate and higher levels of precipitation. Higher elevations (such as those found in the Rockies and on the Colorado Plateau) are also cooler, with approximately a 1.5C (3F) decrease in mean annual temperature for each 300-meter (1000-foot) increase in elevation. Resilient Bermudagrass is widely used in the region, but sufficient watering is essential in the desert climate . With the start of the Paleozoic era, climates across the world were warm, and North America was located in the low and warmer latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Monsoon rainfall activity tends to be grouped into bursts, with periods of rainy days interspersed with drier periods, rather than rain every day. Glaciers covered most of the world's southern landmasses, which were located over the South Pole. Summer rains fall almost entirely during brief but intense thunderstorms on the Great Plains, although the occasional hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may push heavier precipitation inland. The world warmed, and would stay warm through the Mesozoic. Climate change can intensify multiple stresses that push a species past a survival threshold. Arizona monsoon cloud with lightning striking the beautiful Sonoran desert in North Scottsdale. For temperature, the 2020 monsoon was the hottest on record for the Southwest with an average temperature of 77.1 F, significantly beating the previous record of 76.8 F in 2011 (average is 74.3 F). By the end of the Permian, the southern ice sheets had disappeared. (2011)PLoS ONE3(7): e2791(Creative Commons Attribution license, image reorganized and resized). Later in the Jurassic, the climate became more moderate; dune fields were replaced by rivers and floodplains populated by a rich dinosaur fauna (exemplified by the Morrison Formation) and large trees along rivers, streams, and grasslands. As the Cambrian progressed, North America moved northward, and what would become much of the southwestern U.S. was located near the Tropic of Capricorn.